Using TGS Well Performance Data, we predict what it will take to maintain current oil production.

As we bring 2023, an eventful year of consolidation, M&A, and erratic macroeconomic conditions, to a close, we are looking ahead to what 2024 could hold in store. US rig rates are currently hovering near historic steady-state lows at just over 600 active rigs, and current daily production across the US is just over 13 MMBOPD. 

Moving into the new year, we’ve created three scenarios for 2024: A pessimistic “Scenario 1” of dropping 25 rigs per month, a stable “Scenario 2” of keeping a consistent 625 rigs, and an optimistic “Scenario 3” of adding 25 rigs per month (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: Historic and Forecasted Rig Count Scenarios

Using TGS Well Performance Data, we’ve forecasted all active wells and added new type-wells to predict expected production rates for each of the three scenarios (Figure 2). Our model predicts that in the Pessimistic and Stable scenarios, US production would drop to 10.4 MMBOPD or 11.2 MMBOPD respectively by the end of 2024. However, the Optimistic scenario would result in 12.6 MMBOPD by the end of 2024. In short, we predict that the US will need to add an average of 25 rigs per month to maintain current production levels.

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Figure 2: Predicted US Oil Production Through 2024

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