Paper submitted to AAPG ICE 2025, by A. K. Hartwig*, P. Zalan, H. Houllevigue, M. Cvetkovic and K. Reuber (TGS)
Summary
From the surface, Brazil’s offshore exploration and production industry portrays robust activity and fruitful opportunities, however a dive into publicly available data illuminates a more critical perspective of the industry while highlighting the imperative need for steadfast exploration. Brazil’s impressive creaming curve displays ~ 67.5 billion barrels of discovered, offshore oil equivalent, however 34% is from just three discoveries, Tupi, Buzios, and Libra with no other major discoveries since 2012. Over a dozen years have passed without a discovery greater than 1.5 billion boe leaving the industry longing for a change in the narrative.
Drilling results in recent years have encountered challenges from CO2 contamination in outboard Campos Basin / Cabo Frio blocks, lengthy environmental permitting uncertainty in the Equatorial Margin, and yet unproven resources in Pelotas Basin, ultimately leading to a road back to the Santos Basin Pre-Salt. Another contributing factor to the dwindling discoveries was the absence of a 2024 Bid Round. Moreover, Brazil’s extrapolated production model exhibits virtually no extended production plateau, but an extreme increase in production throughout the late 2020’s, from about 3.5 million boepd currently to about 6 million boepd in 2032, followed by an equally rapid decline in production just 7 years from the writing of this article (Wood Mackenzie Lens, 2025). This reiterates the necessity for consistent, annual exploration on a foundation of
innovative seismic data solutions.