OSLO, Norway (18 December 2025) — Stalled site auctions, delayed final investment decisions and cancelled offtake contracts continued to weigh on the global offshore wind industry in 2025, according to the latest Global Market Overview report by wind market research and intelligence experts, TGS | 4C.
As a result, TGS | 4C analysts have significantly reduced their long-term forecasts. At the same time, the report notes that market conditions for offshore wind are improving on several fronts going into 2026.
Analysis shows that the global offshore wind forecast for installed capacity in 2030 has fallen by 28% year on year, with expected capacity outside China reduced from 192 GW to 121 GW. The downturn is not confined to any single market, with Europe and APAC forecast to see cuts of 21% and 31%, respectively, underscoring the breadth of the slowdown.
The analysis finds that global capacity expected to enter offshore construction by 2040 (excluding China) has been reduced by 22%, from 435 GW in Q4 2024 to 341 GW, reflecting continued uncertainty around project economics, policy frameworks and delivery timelines.
Activity in 2025 has slowed sharply. New site awards totalled just 17.2 GW, down 78% on the 75-GW annual average recorded between 2022 and 2024, significantly reducing developers’ demand for site surveys and related services. Europe’s slowdown was particularly pronounced, while floating wind accounted for 5.5 GW of awarded capacity.
Offtake awards fell to 3.1 GW, with contracts awarded only in South Korea, France and Ireland, all for fixed-bottom projects.
Despite the challenging near-term picture, the analysis identifies early signals of recovery in 2026. Higher award volumes are expected, with up to 17.6 GW of offtake (up from 3.1 GW) and around 20 GW of site tenders potentially secured (up from 17.2 GW), alongside 11.4 GW reaching final investment decision and nearly 10 GW moving into commercial operation outside China.
“This year’s sharp slowdown in site and offtake awards highlights the pressure facing the offshore wind sector, but it also marks a moment of adjustment,” said Patrick Owen, senior analyst at TGS | 4C and lead author of the report. “As policy frameworks evolve and risk-sharing improves, we expect activity to pick up again from 2026, albeit on a more measured and sustainable footing.”
Today’s report brings an update on floating offshore wind. TGS | 4C forecasts that 4.1 GW of floating offshore wind capacity will be installed or underway globally by 2030, corresponding to about 0.7 GW operational, and 56.2 GW by 2040, rising dramatically in the 2030s as standardization brings cost reductions. The UK, France, and South Korea are currently ranked as the world’s most attractive floating wind markets.
“There’s no doubt: this year has been challenging for many offshore wind developers and suppliers, with the reduced activity levels across project life cycles resulting in re-organizations and staff layoffs,” said Ivar Slengesol, Managing Director and VP at TGS | 4C. “However, after the site award boom of 2021-2024, offshore wind has a large pipeline of projects under development, and political support for offshore wind remains strong across the globe. In this evolving landscape, having access to reliable intelligence is more important than ever.”
The Quarterly Market Overview Report is available exclusively to TGS | 4C subscribers, providing detailed forecasts, regional analysis and insights into policy, auctions and project pipelines across global offshore wind markets. This edition includes a deep dive into foundation concepts.
TGS | 4C provides intelligence reports on offshore energy trends via its 4C Intelligence platform. As a division of TGS, a leading energy data and intelligence provider, it also offers consultancy services for offshore projects, including offshore wind, subsea power cables, telecommunications, pipelines, and geospatial IT and GIS services. For further information, please visit www.4coffshore.com (https://www.4coffshore.com/).
Image: Offshore wind capacity forecasts to 2035, illustrating successive revisions based on analysis from TGS | 4C.
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