Highlights From TGS and Across the Industry in 2025

This week, we’ll take a step back to review key stories from the past year, key things to watch as we move into 2026, an update on US oil output, and a grab bag of stats and updates from 2025. Happy New Year, and on to 2026!

One Big Story From 2025: Western Haynesville Rush

In early 2025, a handful of Comstock Resources wells were completed in East Texas, with results that raised eyebrows and drew attention across the industry. With the development of multiple NGL export facilities ongoing and a slow decline of new opportunities in the legacy Haynesville play, this new opportunity emerged at the perfect time.

The deeper Bossier and Cotton Valley formations have been continuously developed in the area for decades. Still, in the early 2020s, there was an inflection point that highlights the onset of testing and development of the Western Haynesville play (Fig. 1). Although the production profiles and economics in the significantly deeper Western Haynesville are still slightly less favorable than the legacy Haynesville, that gap is quickly closing (Fig. 2). Read more about the Western Haynesville here.

Fig 1 - Western Haynesville
Fig. 1.  Western Haynesville Overview and Production Profiles

fig 2
Fig. 2. Economic Comparison of Legacy Haynesville and Western Haynesville 

One Big Story to Watch in 2026: Midland Basin Barnett Development

Traditional Permian Basin targets in the Wolfcamp and Bone Springs intervals appear to be reaching maturity. Factors such as increased economic constraints, continual rounds of consolidation, depletion of tier 1 acreage, and ever-rising water production have turned this once extraordinary growth machine into a precisely optimized plateau. However, amongst this transformation, a new play is developing, the deeper Barnett Formation in the core of the Midland Basin. While better known for its prolific dry gas in the Fort Worth Basin, the Barnett exhibits significantly less thermal maturity in the Midland and therefore yields volatile oil. The Midland Barnett has a slightly higher natural gas proportion than some shallower peers, but, critically, it also contains significantly less water (Fig. 3).

The Barnett has been explored and tested in the Midland as early as 2021, but in 2023 and 2024, testing and early development accelerated. And in 2025, the productivity of new wells drilled increased even further (Fig. 4). The Cobb Pool 3724A 01H well, completed earlier this year in the Barnett, was even among the top producing wells this year, measured by 90-day oil IP.

With large operators like Occidental Petroleum publicly recognizing the potential, 2026 could see significant Barnett growth. Read more about the Midland Barnett Shale here.

fig 3
Fig. 3. Barnett Benchmark 

Fig 4 - Barnett
Fig. 4. Midland Barnett Overview and Production Profiles 

U.S. Oil Production

As the year draws to a close, the TGS U.S. oil production model indicates we are on track for 12.7 MMBOPD by year-end (Fig. 5). Amid uncertainty from tariffs, global supply shifts, and cost constraints, total US output appears to have remained surprisingly steady. This dissonance is summarized well by a comment on the recent Dallas Fed Energy Survey, “There is no way that the U.S oil production data is correct”. It's important to remember that real-time or near-real-time reporting on gross production at the state level, let alone nationwide, is extremely difficult without a forward-looking predictive model. We discussed how the TGS model makes those assumptions and predictions here.

In short, we use a combination of standard time-delayed state-reported production, forecast production for existing wells, and predicted type-well production for new wells drilled after the state-reported time delay, based on recorded rig counts and backward-looking rig productivity statistics. Periodically, we’ll compare our model results with other publicly available reports, such as the EIA, but ultimately, all models are based on built-in assumptions and predictions. During steady periods, these models are likely to be pretty accurate, but during periods of high volatility, assumptions baked into them are likely to deteriorate. We will keep a close eye on this as more precise data are released, recalibrating and updating these models. You can track updates to the TGS U.S. Oil model over time here.

fig 5
Fig. 5. TGS US Oil Production Model

Grab Bag

Permitting (fig 6):

  • 16,800 permits approved so far in 2025
  • Top Basins: Delaware, Midland, Gulf Coast, Western Canadian, Appalachian
  • Top Permitted Formations: Spraberry Trend Area, Bone Spring, Wolfcamp, Niobrara, Eagle Ford

Fig 6
Fig. 6. 2025 Permit Map and Statistics

Well Production:

  • Top basin by new well production (BOE): Delaware, Gulf Coast, Midland, East Texas, Western Canadian, Anadarko, Powder River
  • Top producing formation by new well production (BOE): Eagle Ford, Spraberry Trend Area, Bone Spring, Haynesville, Bakken, Wolfcamp, Niobrara, Austin Chalk

*Not all new wells and production from 2025 have been fully released for every state.

M&A:

TGS Analysis in 2025:

For more information about TGS Well Data Analytics or to schedule a demo, please contact us at WDPSales@tgs.com.